More of the Same
Pulling together these statistics on the Durham luxury home market is getting a little boring I’m afraid. Unlike our neighboring counties of Wake, Orange and Chatham, through the economic downturn Durham has not gotten worse…or better. You might see a glimmer of hope in the fact that for the last two quarters Durham’s market share has improved from about 5% to about 9% of the Triangle Market. But the truth is the change has come in the drop in sales in the other counties and not an increase in Durham.
Sales
All of these statistics are based on homes with current listing prices of $700,000 or more. In Durham there were 9 sales and there are 4 more under contract and pending. Four of the sales were in Hope Valley, two were in Croasdaile and there were one each in Forest Hills, Colvard Farms and The Oaks. There were no closed sales in Treyburn in this category.
All nine homes in Durham where sold for less that the original listing price. The average discount was over $80,000. The lowest was $15,000 and the highest was $310,000.
The chart below shows the number of Durham sales compared to Wake, Orange and Chatham. This translates into a market share for Durham of 9.5% while Wake enjoys a 69% share, Chapel Hill 16% and Chatham 5.3%. The total dollar sales in the region was slightly over $94M and the average sale was just over $1M. Durham’s average was $870,388 and the other counties averaged slightly more than $1M.
Inventory
The chart below shows the current inventory of each county. A simple absorption rate can be calculated by taking the quarterly numbers, multiplying by 4 and dividing into the inventory number. For example, at the rate of 9 sales per quarter, Durham’s annual rate is 36 homes sold. Dividing 36 into 94 gives you 2.6 years worth of inventory currently on the market. Raleigh has 2.8 years worth of inventory, Orange has 2.7 years and Chatham over 6 years worth of inventory.
Interestingly, Durham currently has the best absorption rate of the four counties even in spite of the addition of several new listings that comprise The Brownstones, luxury townhomes that are to be built on property that was once part of the old NC Eye and Ear Hospital near Brightleaf Square behind Papa Johns Pizza. None of these will actually be available until next year. Neither the listings nor the project website mention availability and an email to the listing agent has not yet elicited a response. This looks like a very ambitious project and will be a wonderful addition to the downtown landscape. I’ll report any additional information that I can get.
The average per square foot price of listings in all four counties are significantly higher than the actual per square foot prices paid during the second quarter, suggesting that there will be some additional price cutting and tough negotiations.
The inventory in Durham breaks down this way: Hope Valley 24 listings, Treyburn 16, Trinity Park/Watts Hillandale 11, The Oaks 9, Meadowmont 4, Maida Vale 4, Forest Hills and Duke Forest 2 each and 11 scattered around in other neighborhoods.
It is encouraging that Durham as kept up a modest pace during the downturn while our neighboring counties have suffered mightily in comparison. I sincerely believe that the community is well positioned to turn the corner and become the gem of the Triangle region and the most desirable place to live as well as work.
As always, comments are welcome here on the site. All this information has been drawn from searches performed directly in the Triangle MLS and is available to any REALTOR. Suggestions and points you might want clarified can be addressed directly to me at jay@jayzenner.com.
